Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.962565 3.540498 4.186383 4.959522 5.857519 6.865284 8.079394
2025-11-16 2.137665 2.875353 3.786878 4.986982 6.515261 8.385289 10.834122
2025-11-23 1.632816 2.425735 3.490608 5.005351 7.080844 9.797721 13.590374
2025-11-30 1.276802 2.070305 3.216099 4.957458 7.495008 11.007550 16.173617
2025-12-07 0.976813 1.719270 2.865912 4.717118 7.568398 11.715781 18.101233
2025-12-14 0.798061 1.512189 2.683116 4.676561 7.897908 12.786739 20.611513
2025-12-21 0.664672 1.349574 2.536746 4.658617 8.239920 13.885847 23.239379
2025-12-28 0.603600 1.301062 2.568995 4.930668 9.064897 15.792074 27.258581
2026-01-04 0.532437 1.218077 2.524603 5.058393 9.653646 17.361978 30.862758
2026-01-11 0.482287 1.166077 2.526842 5.264861 10.392008 19.230757 35.091332
2026-01-18 0.417924 1.070665 2.429502 5.269283 10.763525 20.500882 38.405807
2026-01-25 0.346645 0.944340 2.249035 5.085640 10.762221 21.112567 40.624645
2026-02-01 0.286158 0.830880 2.079393 4.905384 10.756787 21.733806 42.946881
2026-02-08 0.249285 0.767004 2.006964 4.916322 11.124849 23.066761 46.650160
2026-02-15 0.217952 0.710031 1.940361 4.929486 11.496033 24.432056 50.510509
2026-02-22 0.187723 0.648486 1.852041 4.880736 11.730321 25.548556 53.979491
2026-03-01 0.152950 0.564303 1.692383 4.643285 11.532275 25.793508 55.789658
2026-03-08 0.132412 0.517734 1.620362 4.603161 11.759363 26.904165 59.361036
2026-03-15 0.115657 0.478642 1.561102 4.585428 12.032924 28.127766 63.236784
2026-03-22 0.110899 0.479122 1.611804 4.853663 12.992820 30.856600 70.335282
2026-03-29 0.101778 0.461705 1.608259 4.979607 13.628234 32.938557 76.232827
2026-04-05 0.095750 0.454157 1.632646 5.183209 14.469192 35.522312 83.332125
2026-04-12 0.084975 0.425133 1.586547 5.187570 14.821417 37.057288 88.311406